Saturday, January 24, 2009

Where did the current crises started from?

It all started from the derivatives market.The concept of derivative security is basically to provide hedging againt future uncertain pricing of a stock or commodity. So in order to avoid the business risk arising out of non business acivity,the dealers can get into contract of a derivatives so that their position is hedged.But does derivative offer oppurtunity for the dealers to optimize their returns?Does it serve the primarily motive that it is made for?What can be the other determing forces that can make derivates a no use tool for hedging agencies?
As mentioned above ,the theoritical model for which the derivatives securities are made,but pracically the truth lies beyond measure.According to survey,only 52%of the total trading in derivatives is done for hedging,rests 48%accounts for speculation and arbitrage activies undertaken on a huge scale.So practically markets can account for three purposes of which two of the activities depict one of the forms of market ineffectiveness that account for 48% of the activities.I'll focus on the relationship between the arbitrage stratergy resulting in a bubble creation and hence creating scope for speculation activity.Hence 48 % of our market conditions are derived as bubble creating acts of the traders.
It all started from crude oil trading in the derivatives market.The crude was traded intensively by the chartist(or technical traders) and all the arbitrage arising out of the bubble creators were enjoyed by the "arbitraguers".Hence the basic motive behind which the market was not fulfilled at the first place and hence the big industries which rely on crude oil as their basic source of raw material were not satisfied with the market makers.The bubble followed a psychological bullish trend and hence none of the prices didn't seem tobe enough of providing stability.Crude oil offers as the basic commodity for production and consumption and hence it defines the inflation of an economy to some basic extent.the crude oil touched a new high one day of $122 per barrel.This type of a pricing allured many of the citizens of US and UK to hedge their postion against inflation by getting long in the future derivative of crude oil lots.Hence this proved to be a successful stratergy for the US citizens in the beginning till the time crude oil made a new high of 147 $ per barrel.Till that the ballon was damn fully filled .Another blow of air into the ballon can result in outburst of the balloon.Hence the psychological bullish trend bursted into fall of a crude oil prices.But still the bearish stage was not established.Now the hedge funds,pension funds,citizens,etc enetered into more long positions of crude oil lots creating a natural made debacle in the long run.When crude oil started falling ,the most liquid thing in the world(or exchanges)became a vulnerable source of credit crunch for most of the heavily dependant nations like US and UK on crude oil .Their money blew away like sand from the hard pressed hand.(continuation in next)

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