Saturday, January 24, 2009

Where did the current crises started from?

It all started from the derivatives market.The concept of derivative security is basically to provide hedging againt future uncertain pricing of a stock or commodity. So in order to avoid the business risk arising out of non business acivity,the dealers can get into contract of a derivatives so that their position is hedged.But does derivative offer oppurtunity for the dealers to optimize their returns?Does it serve the primarily motive that it is made for?What can be the other determing forces that can make derivates a no use tool for hedging agencies?
As mentioned above ,the theoritical model for which the derivatives securities are made,but pracically the truth lies beyond measure.According to survey,only 52%of the total trading in derivatives is done for hedging,rests 48%accounts for speculation and arbitrage activies undertaken on a huge scale.So practically markets can account for three purposes of which two of the activities depict one of the forms of market ineffectiveness that account for 48% of the activities.I'll focus on the relationship between the arbitrage stratergy resulting in a bubble creation and hence creating scope for speculation activity.Hence 48 % of our market conditions are derived as bubble creating acts of the traders.
It all started from crude oil trading in the derivatives market.The crude was traded intensively by the chartist(or technical traders) and all the arbitrage arising out of the bubble creators were enjoyed by the "arbitraguers".Hence the basic motive behind which the market was not fulfilled at the first place and hence the big industries which rely on crude oil as their basic source of raw material were not satisfied with the market makers.The bubble followed a psychological bullish trend and hence none of the prices didn't seem tobe enough of providing stability.Crude oil offers as the basic commodity for production and consumption and hence it defines the inflation of an economy to some basic extent.the crude oil touched a new high one day of $122 per barrel.This type of a pricing allured many of the citizens of US and UK to hedge their postion against inflation by getting long in the future derivative of crude oil lots.Hence this proved to be a successful stratergy for the US citizens in the beginning till the time crude oil made a new high of 147 $ per barrel.Till that the ballon was damn fully filled .Another blow of air into the ballon can result in outburst of the balloon.Hence the psychological bullish trend bursted into fall of a crude oil prices.But still the bearish stage was not established.Now the hedge funds,pension funds,citizens,etc enetered into more long positions of crude oil lots creating a natural made debacle in the long run.When crude oil started falling ,the most liquid thing in the world(or exchanges)became a vulnerable source of credit crunch for most of the heavily dependant nations like US and UK on crude oil .Their money blew away like sand from the hard pressed hand.(continuation in next)

Monday, January 12, 2009

Was there any provision for bailouts in the fraudlent of a company engaged in capital markets?

We provide funds to the government in the form of taxes and government in turn provides financial support to the companies being under stringent influence of unwanted activities in the market.What is the use of provide monetary support to the companies from citizen's money and in tern protecting jobs and comman man interest.It seems like during the end of the government period this is a political turn being given to thuis aspect.This is like protecting government interests in the form of protecting the unwanted the fallout of aa company involving many people.Satyam offered as a mjor outsourcing company during the past few years and during the period of UPA government this is the only sector being given the most important source of funds in order in order to raise outsourcing business in India.
Now a fallout can deepen the current aspect of a dramatic global downturn to more fierce unwanted unemployment for plenty of citizens relying on this s3ector for bread and butter.This can be a political turn in order to artificially settle the situation.

Sunday, January 11, 2009

Is the current scam of Satyam computers symbolic of SEBI's laxity in terms of rules governing capital markets scenario in India?

Satyam computers have definitely laid a very impression of insecurity in state of foreign investors mindset.Apart from insecured aspect the auditing of this company was undertaken by some foreign company.Adding the aspect of foreing company involvement in this auditing scam lightens the argument againt the meak policies being undertaken by the SEBI.The situation was the outside the legal framework of our country.Are the global exposures forming our regulatory systems more vulnerable?Are these global money inflows making things more worse?
Even because of our stringent policies towards every sector,the escape by any company in terms of a scam was like a slap on our face.
Are these issues of insecurity among our country people over the flows of money forming a cloud of unhealthy pratices?
The future midcaps and small caps position can be the most hurt by these vulnerability faed shareholders of satyam.We are still not able to form a framework governing our country's rigidity in terms of progress without any fallouts.
This is the high time where the political and global issues need to be intergrated well with our citizens perspective.If this cant be the possibility then we can face another downstream may be in some sectors or politcally.

Thursday, January 1, 2009

The global economic downturn has now taken geo-political impact.The political upsurgency brought about in south east asian countries due to security tensions are creating more hazardous impact on the economically depressed economies.Diplomatic war of words have urged an unwanted situation for a war.In order to protect our economic position ,we require a strong motivation to improve all our basics well.But due to certain global political factors we are forgetting our main goal of economic sustainability.The sub prime crisis resulting in certain downsizing of other economic conditions have made our exchanges more vulnurable . Th e confidence among investors is already so low.With more political tensions intruding into the figure can make things even more unwanted.So the dire need of the hour is to settle all political and start working for our economy as a whole.From this we shouldn't ignore the security concerns for our country people rather we should form form a collective policy which should govern the rights and benefits for our people.