SJVN

Investment in SJVN can be a long term trade. This stock is trading at market valuation of Rs10,000 crore with return of equity around 11%. The company's valuation is calculated mostly on the basis of three things namely cash flows, earnings growth and current return on equity. This company is in the hydropower generation which is the most sustainable form of creating power in future and with Narender Modi' s inclination towards our water resources this sector can be expected to grow atleast 10-20 % p.a.. With the good dividend policy of this company it becomes one of cash cow stocks available in the market right now. And looking at the current return on equity of 11% is above the CPI Inflation rate of 8% and offers as a good trade to get in.

Investing in power sector where the demand exceeds way more than the supply. The demand side constraint is never a problem for this sector and the supply side will be addressed by the new government at the centre. This can be the next bull sector for india which is the generation of power through renewable resources. 

GREAT TIME TO INVEST IN SPECIFIC INDIAN STOCKS

Power sector

Looking at BSE Power index over a period of five years the previous government hasn't made this as a profitable proposition for private players to create a business friendly sector. It includes delays in coal blocks allocation, delays in environmental approval and so on so forth. The PSU's doing the power distribution and production were paralysed because of huge wage cost for the employees and bad environment to operate efficiently and effectively.

Looking at the overall scenario if these underlying issues can be taken care of with good governance and effective implementation of power sector reforms, the current valuation of various stocks like NTPC, TATA POWER, SJVN( particularly) and RELIANCE INFRA can easily given an aggregate return of 15-18 percent over the longer term period.

Massive opportunity to get in short

There has been a very strong inverse relationship between gold and equity markets for quite long now. Looking at this gold is back to its previous levels and equities haven't gone down. This has been a very sharp movement for the equities upward but it can be big fall down from this level. The natural calamities all the globe is like adding salt to the wounds. This is not helping. Every country's finances are drained with these uncertain events all over the world.

With this uncertain chain of events the technical and fundamental reasons me to be long the gold and short the equities worldwide. These are quite volatile times and I would like to be on short side of the equities as the basic problem of debt crisis is not addressed properly by the western world. This can be a double dip!

Sense some selling again

This can be an end to the US superpower regime. How can you force a person to resign if he downgraded a country?? There is no way you could hide the structural problem in your country. It is near to a default and there is no way you could hide that. Every wrong step taken by the country is forgotten to overcome 2007 credit crisis debacle. Its the time to pay that is pay back the excessive quantitative easing in form of a slump or a depression. The demise of capitalist regime under democratic framework seem to be quite evident.

Crude oil seems to be loosing its air and has a possibility to come off whereas right to buy gold when it has dipped quite sharply.

The markets bullied by big bears

There has been an unwanted delay created by government of western world to declare an economic world declining into recession. For past few weeks, the European countries especially France tried to stop short selling in banking stocks but the results don't seem to favor the cause. The systematic deficiency in huge leverage taken by the debt world cannot be overlooked by banning short selling. Again my argument is strongly against wrong addressing of issues by bureaucratic authorities. The demise of capitalism is substantiated by government's wrong acts. I could see double dip recession very much there with US dollar losing its value if Quantitative Easing is done the third time.

In oil market, Brent and WTI Crude have already shown steep fall and there will be now shock if it comes off drastically with gold going up. With no buying capacity the oil products might take a dip down. The economic indicators are still not worse but there is a huge scope of situation worsening to an unimaginable level. No Economy in world is able to get proper growth with these debt issues.

Trade well and be sure.

A relief day

The stocks came back a bit with traders involved showing a sigh of relief. But is this kind of upward movement sustainable?? I don't think so. There is so much more to loose for so many odd fundamental and technical reasons. The US national debt is increasing by $5000 every single second. The United States Of America needs another baby boomer generation which is a possibility but with not these kind of expenditures. The commodities are priced in terms of US dollar, most of the massive economies like China hold US Treasury bonds, US is about to quantitative ease for the third time. Seriously speaking there is no real value in this particular currency and for me we are heading for a financial disaster again.

Austerity Vs Excessive spending debate

Both America and Europe had their own way to deal with this financial crisis. If you ask me both of them are crappiest idea in their respective narrow brains. This shows lack of focus in their government's policy to deal the basic problem of bubble formation in their economies. Rather than dealing with this problem they are trying to be mischievousness young boys trying to escape problem for a short span of time.

I have currently come through on news channel saying Dow tops 11000 and I sensed some USD in my accounts.

Trade well and be safe.

Sell!! Sell Sell

Markets offered great opportunity yesterday to get in some short positions on global stocks especially bank stocks. The stocks don't seem to go up at all whereas gold is ballooned up just as a security for lay man. The shares like Walt disney and various banking sector stocks came off a substantial propostion of their market value. There is currently no signal of any kind of buy for me in this market. No stock or any company seems to please my eyes as everything is over capitalized compared to original market value.

Banks or government re-financed debt???

These western banks don't seem to stand back up after major debacle of 2008 sub prime crisis. The most important mistake has been the government intervention in securing their debt. Its a funny situation in the end where government bailed out banks and got bankrupted themselves. It is very funny indeed because it provides unnecessary volatility in the market. The VIX Index was over 20% and it was recorded one of the highest for this year. This unnecessary volatility attracts various speculators who take advantage and make millions. How can a economy be sustained if its based on speculators??

Is electronic trading an improvement compared to floor trading?

A hell no. Electronic trading of derivatives have made it worse as it just promotes speculation with better technology . We are heading for the times where these derivatives products will create huge animosity among the so called civilized people.

I still believe and firm on my opinion on DOW, Sand P 500, NASDAQ or any other global stock index. A big Sell.

Trade well and be safe.